Make Decisions, Not Mistakes: Setting Your Keto Rules for the New Year

2019-12-31

A 37-minute Facebook Live from New Year's Eve 2019, the kickoff of a free 2020 reboot in the group. The first 22 minutes are about how to make diet decisions. The rest is the plainest version of my approach on any recording: what low carb actually does, the five foods to cut first, and why calories still decide the result.

In this recording

[0:00] The 2020 reboot and the free group. There's a check-in thread, and I'll follow up on anyone who posts there, all year, unless they delete their comment.
[2:00] New Year's is when people look back and set goals. I've seen "set goals now" posts and "stop setting goals and work on them" posts. I had a third view.
[2:52] From Buddhism: when you try to meditate, part of your mind keeps thinking anyway. The mind is a terrible master but a wonderful servant.
[4:21] Plans have to firm up at some point. A lot of diet trouble is one part of you that knows better arguing with another part that wants quality time, social eating or less boring food.
[5:16] Make decisions, not mistakes. Keto isn't so strict that carrots and bell peppers are suddenly bad for you.
[6:30] People don't gain weight because of taste-testing at work or honouring a grandmother's meal. It's the unconscious everyday choices made when no one's guarding the castle.
[8:14] If you'll split an onion ring with coworkers, decide that in advance. Birthdays, Thanksgiving and Christmas come every year.
[9:46] Speed limits get fudged; stop signs don't. Make your rules yes-or-no, like stop signs. I'm not a fan of a weekly cheat meal, but if you need one, decide it and write it down.
[12:10] Make the decision, then put decision-making aside. Revisit it once a week or once a month, not at every meal.
[14:14] My definition: if your body is producing and using ketones well, that's a ketogenic diet, whatever it includes. For weight loss, fats are fats. In maintenance, choose them for longevity.
[15:29] Lock down one part of your routine, such as a morning protein shake plus bouillon for sodium and potassium, and some vitamins.
[16:14] Hold a weekly meeting with yourself. If you're unhappy on Thursday, write it down and raise it on Sunday. I don't think bell peppers made America fat.
[17:48] Close the gap between what you expect and what you can do. Instead of "lose 50 this year", maybe start with "stop gaining".
[22:21] So how do you lose weight with low carb? The same way you always did: calories in, calories out has not been debunked.
[22:56] The "starvation mode" idea: in a deficit on a high-carb diet, some people report feeling cold, moving less and brain fog. My theory: insulin keeps fat stores locked up, so you run short of energy.
[24:18] Carbs don't seem to be essential. Even some vegetables may trigger overeating if you have insulin problems, though that doesn't make the food unhealthy.
[26:19] The calorie approach works every time. Where it failed for me was constant hunger. Low carb removes that underlying drive to eat.
[28:48] Keto may not fix emotional, stress or boredom eating, and it won't let you binge without gaining.
[30:21] White flour has little nutrition. Rice and potatoes have some, but not nutrients most people lack.
[32:41] My five to cut first: potatoes, rice, white flour, sugar and high-fructose corn syrup.
[33:43] After that it's a lower-calorie strategy. Get your nutrition from big salads or supplements and shakes.
[34:18] High protein keeps you fitter but isn't required for weight loss. No special amount of fat is needed for ketosis unless you're underweight.
[35:18] My opinions: electrolytes, a multivitamin, high protein and high fibre. Everyone losing weight should supplement, since less food means fewer nutrients. The primary concern is and was calories.

Watching this in 2026: decide once

The part I'd keep is the decision-making method. Most diets fail at the moments nobody planned for: the office snack, the birthday cake, the bag of something at 9 pm. If every one of those is a fresh decision, that's dozens of decisions a week, and you'll lose some. My answer was to make the rules once, when you're calm, as yes-or-no lines like a stop sign, and to save any complaints for a weekly review.

That fits what I'd told the group a week earlier: keto isn't all or nothing, so plan where the carbs go (live FYNW9028). It also fits "keep complexity and obligation low" from 2018 (live GKYD4230). Fewer decisions, fewer chances to slip.

Drill-down: calories, and what the evidence says about the rest

I said calories in, calories out hasn't been debunked, and the evidence pages agree. In a metabolic-ward study, 17 men switched to a ketogenic diet at the same calories. Energy expenditure rose by 57 kcal a day, and body-fat loss actually slowed after the switch (Hall 2016). No magic, just a small difference. My "starvation mode" explanation about insulin locking up fat stores was a theory I labelled as one, and the pages don't test it.

On protein, I said it isn't required for weight loss. The literature suggests it helps more than I gave it credit for: raising protein from 15% to 30% of energy cut how much people ate on their own by 441 kcal a day (Weigle 2005). So protein helps with the calories, too.

On supplements, my position and the literature differ. I said everyone losing weight should supplement. The US Preventive Services Task Force finds the evidence insufficient to weigh benefits and harms of multivitamins for preventing heart disease and cancer (USPSTF 2022). My reason, though, was eating less food, and there is support for that concern: in the A TO Z study of women, the Atkins group shifted toward inadequate intake of thiamine, folate, vitamin C, iron and magnesium after 8 weeks, and the other diets had shortfalls of their own (Gardner 2010).

My vegetables line here ("I don't think bell peppers made America fat") matches the "eat your vegetables" line from January 2019 (video 1JbK1_ClDmY). And the morning bouillon goes back to my 2018 electrolytes routine (video -dHjt_Bpruk).

Before you start

If you take insulin or other diabetes medication, or blood-pressure medication, cutting carbs can change your dose. Talk to your doctor first. Also check with them if you have kidney disease (before potassium supplements or a high-protein plan), are pregnant, or have a history of an eating disorder.

Key points

Make your diet rules in advance, as yes-or-no lines, and review them weekly, not at every meal.
Plan for birthdays and holidays; they come every year.
Calories still decide weight loss. Low carb helps by taking away the hunger.
Cut five things first: potatoes, rice, white flour, sugar and high-fructose corn syrup.
Keep protein and fibre up and get your electrolytes. On multivitamins, my advice and the evidence differ.